The Associated Press

December 18, 2002, Wednesday, BC cycle

SECTION: International News

LENGTH: 672 words

HEADLINE: Kurds fear humanitarian disaster if war comes, but can do little to prepare

BYLINE: By BORZOU DARAGAHI, Associated Press Writer

DATELINE: IRBIL, Iraq

BODY:
Officials in the Kurdish enclave of northern Iraq acknowledge they've done little to prepare for the humanitarian fallout - which could be devastating - if the United States launches a war to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

In the bazaars, Kurds say if war comes, they'll do what they've always done - flee to the mountains.

Kurdish officials say that, short of handing out gas masks to the 4 million residents of the autonomous Kurdish enclave, there's little they can do to prevent civilian deaths or contain fears that could lead to an exodus like the one after the 1991 Kurdish uprising against Saddam that led to the establishment of the U.S.-British-protected Iraqi no-fly zone.

The unusual governing structure of the Kurdish autonomous zone in northern Iraq - where the United Nations and two Kurdish political parties effectively run an area with no international legal standing - has also complicated efforts to prepare for a crisis. The zone, which comprises the Iraqi provinces of Irbil, Dohuk and Sulaymania, is beyond the authority of the Baghdad government and is protected by aerial patrols of U.S. and British aircraft.

"When it's to the international community's advantage, they say, 'You're the government, do something,"' says Shawkat Bamarni, a Dohuk-based adviser to the Kurdish prime minister. "When it's not, they say, 'You're not the government.' We have all the responsibilities of a government, but none of the power."

Kurdish officials have tried to press Turkey to allow aid workers to enter the enclave across its border. Currently, only Syria allows aid workers to transit its territory. Iraq's neighbors, with their own Kurdish minorities - Turkey, Syria and Iran - are suspicious of what they see as Iraqi Kurds' ambitions to form an independent state. The Iraqi Kurds say they want to remain part of a federal, post-Saddam Iraq.

A huge wintertime refugee crisis is the greatest humanitarian risk in northern Iraq, says Colin Rowat, an expert on the Iraqi sanctions program at the University of Birmingham in Britain.

"Refugees might be trapped in the mountains on the Turkish border again if Turkey refuses to open its borders," he says. "This is how they died in 1991."

The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, which maintains a significant presence in northern Iraq, keeps a stockpile of supplies for up to 250,000 people in Denmark.

"These items could be airlifted to a crisis region in a short period of time," says Peter Kessler, a Geneva-based UNHCR spokesman.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has facilities in neighboring countries, and the United States has begun tapping American aid agencies and charities.

The United Nations considers anyone who enters northern Iraq without an Iraqi visa to be here illegally. The United Nations last year cut ties with international aid organizations whose workers entered via Syria without Iraqi visas.

Critics say the U.N. stance makes it difficult to coordinate relief efforts. The U.N.-administered oil-for-food program provides much of the funding for government and humanitarian projects in northern Iraq.

U.N. officials in northern Iraq refused an Associated Press request for an interview.

Kurdish officials have begun weekly meetings with U.N. officials, but complain there have been few concrete results.

"There's been no preparation on the ground," says Fouad Baban, a Sulaymania physician who treats victims of Baghdad's chemical attack on the Kurdish town of Halabja in 1988.

"People are more aware of the dangers of chemical weapons, but there have been no public plans made to protect people against chemical or biological weapons," he said.

Kurds say if war comes, there will be a mass exodus by car and on foot into the mountains.

"Ever since the 1991 flight, I've always kept a suitcase with all our money, jewelry, some clothes and food," says Friad Araf Rashid, an antiques dealer in Sulaymania. "We'll go over the mountains, like we did last time, and head to Iran."