From: Subject: Iran captivated by prophet of fiscal doom | csmonitor.com Date: Sun, 16 Nov 2003 10:58:48 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_006B_01C3AC30.9D123650"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1165 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_006B_01C3AC30.9D123650 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0312/p06s01-wome.html Iran captivated by prophet of fiscal doom | = csmonitor.com =20
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from the March 12, 2002 edition =


PESSIMIST: Economist Muhammad- Hussein=20 Adib.
BORZOU=20 DARAGAHI

Iran = captivated by=20 prophet of fiscal doom
By Borzou = Daragahi=20 | Special to The Christian = Science=20 Monitor
ISFAHAN, IRAN - During the=20 years leading up to the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iranians = distributed bootlegged tapes of the Ayatollah Ruhollah = Khomeini's=20 angry sermons against the Shah. These days, the speeches of = a=20 humbler figure have shown up on the pirated cassette = circuit:=20 Muhammad-Hussein Adib, a university professor. Rather than = fiery=20 political rhetoric, he delivers plain-spoken lectures to = students,=20 business executives, and workers on a subject close to the = heart of=20 every Iranian: the imminent collapse of the economy.=20

"Within four years," says the University of Isfahan = economist, "a=20 series of simultaneous crises will place the Iranian economy = beyond=20 control."

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Adib's message, spoken in the colorful sing-song accent = native to=20 this city of blue-domed mosques and medieval bridges, is = echoed=20 though not fully seconded by other experts. But it resonates = among=20 ordinary Iranians. And it carries implications for the = United=20 States, which has pinpointed Iran as a foe in the war on = terror.

Though President Bush named Iran a node on the "axis of = evil" in=20 his Jan. 29 State of the Union address, an economically = hobbled=20 Islamic Republic could be a far less worrisome threat. The = country=20 is likely to need $130 billion in loans from its prosperous = friends=20 in western Europe and Asia over the next dozen years just to = stay=20 afloat, says Adib.

In a nutshell, Adib says that interrelated economic = crises will=20 cause massive "unpredictability" in about four years. A=20 postrevolutionary baby boom will peak, heavily subsidized=20 agriculture and industry will collapse, and water will run = out in=20 the central and eastern provinces. To top it all off, oil = revenues=20 will shrink to nothing. "Iran till now has been administered = by=20 swords and oil," says Adib. "Because there won't be any oil, = it=20 won't be able to continue as it has."

Most Western and local analysts and government officials = here=20 agree with some of Adib's analysis, though they shy away = from his=20 dismal predictions. "I think it's a bit too radical," says = Albrecht=20 Frischenschlager, analyst at Atieh Bahar, a Tehran = investment=20 consultancy firm.

The author of several books, Adib comes with an = impressive=20 resume. He graduated from high school at 16, and at 21 began = teaching at Tehran's Beheshti University. Each week he = delivers=20 lectures in the cities of Shiraz and Isfahan, speaks at = factories,=20 and writes several newspaper and magazine columns.

"He's the only one who says it outright," says a = 67-year-old=20 retired civil service employee in Tehran in possession of a = two-hour=20 tape of one of his lectures. "The economy here is at an = end."

His ubiquity attests to a national obsession with the = economy.=20 Unemployment, 13 percent inflation, and stagnant wages have = taken a=20 toll on people's lives. The official jobless rate is 13.7 = percent,=20 but independent analysts place it at around 20. The average = family=20 earns $3,125 a year; it spends $3,750. More palpably, = Iranians eat=20 20 percent less food and 30 percent less meat than they did = 10 years=20 ago, according to a recent report by the Central Bank here. = The=20 birth rate here jumped from 1 million a year in the years = before the=20 revolution to 2 million year from 1979 until 1989. That baby = boom=20 has come of age, and Iran needs an estimated 800,000 to 1.2 = million=20 new jobs a year to keep the young generation busy. It = created=20 400,000 in 2000. That was a good year.

Large government expenses also present a problem. = State-owned=20 businesses suck up to 65 percent of government expenditures=20 according to The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street = Journal's=20 2002 Index of Economic Freedom.

The future of Iran's oil revenue is also in doubt. Iran = produces=20 3.7 million barrels a day, 1.6 million of which goes to = domestic=20 use. But starting in three years, Iran will have to hand 1.2 = million=20 barrels to the oil companies who helped rebuild the energy = industry.=20 Unless the country succeeds in its goal of increasing = production to=20 5 million barrels a day, it will have scant left to = sell.

Frischenschlager says he sees the will to combat the = trends Adib=20 describes. Next year's budget complies with 90 percent of = the=20 International Monetary Fund's recommendations.

Adib says joining the World Trade Organization could draw = investment and ameliorate the crisis. That could require = curtailing=20 the power of the conservatives, who have rejected free-trade = proposals. But Adib politely switches the subject when asked = about=20 Iranian politics or foreign policy.

In addition to being the heart of Persian culture, = Isfahan is=20 infamous for its cunning merchants. And in Adib's urgent = message,=20 one detects the wounded pride of a centuries-old business = culture=20 striving to regain its former glory. "We're the most closed = economy=20 in the world," Adib says, citing a 2002 report ranking Iran = the=20 least competitive of 178 nations. "This is the end of the = world,=20 right here. We're dead last. Right here, where we're = sitting,=20 drinking tea."


For further = information:=20
=95 Islamic=20 Republic News Agency
=95 Payvand News=20 Of Iran
Please Note: = The Monitor=20 does not endorse the sites behind these links. We = offer them=20 for your additional research. Following these links = will open=20 a new browser window.
=95 Visit the Monitor Web Directory: sites we = like.=20



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