Borzou Daragahi in Teheran
The ubiquitous murals depicting those who died fighting
Iraq during the war that ended 14 years ago continue to fade.
And at a popular Iranian restaurant recently, an icon that
would have once caused a riot popped up on a table as a
place-holder: the Iraqi flag. Iraqi diplomats had dinner
reservations.
But despite signs of healing, the scars in the Iran-Iraq
relationship still run deep. And after obligatory rhetoric
against United States hegemony and attacks on Muslims, Iran
will sit out any US attack against Iraq.
In fact, it will watch longingly for its long-despised
neighbour to be crushed once and for all, say observers.
'Despite superficial warming, the relationship between Iran
and Iraq is as hostile and as mistrustful as ever,' says Gary
Sick, a Middle East expert and former US national security
adviser.
'In the event of a US-Iraq military encounter, I would
expect Iran to maintain official neutrality, as it did before,
or even to co-operate tacitly with the US - as it did in
Afghanistan.'
The mullahs running the Islamic Republic of Iran worry
though that a pro-American Iraq could be used as a staging
ground to rid Teheran of its clerical regime, which the US
claims supports terrorism and pursues weapons of mass
destruction.
If Iraq comes under US dominion, Iran will be bordered by
pro-American governments on eastern and western flanks, as
well as in the Persian Gulf.
'The internal Iranian debate is whether it's preferable to
have a weakened Saddam in power versus a new pro-American
Iraqi regime headed by [opposition leader] Ahmed Chalabi,'
says Nader Hashemi, a Middle East specialist at the University
of Toronto in Canada. 'Should this happen, the obvious
question emerges: after regime changes in Afghanistan and
Iraq, could Iran be the next target?'
The last time the US attacked Iraq, Iran kept quiet,
pleased that Saddam, with whom it had just completed a bloody
war, was getting his comeuppance. Today, Iran and Iraq have
patched up some of their differences. The two recently
completed another round of exchanging the remains of war dead.
Up to 50,000 Iranians travel each year to southern Iraq to
visit the tombs of important saints in Shia Islam - the
majority religion in both countries.
In an historic visit in January, Iraqi Foreign Minister
Naji Sabri visited Iran. He shook hands with his Iranian
counterparts and made a pilgrimage to the holy Iranian city of
Mashad.
Iran, like most countries, remains officially opposed to a
US military assault on Iraq. 'We believe that attacking Iraq
or any other country on the pretext of fighting terrorism does
not solve any of the world's problems,' Iranian Vice-President
Mohammed Abtahi said in Beirut last week.
But it was only about a year ago when Iran itself fired 56
missiles into Iraqi territory in an attack on Iranian
opposition groups, allegedly causing six civilian casualties.
In fact, each nation hosts and backs violent opposition groups
dedicated to the other's demise. Both countries accuse the
other of continuing to hold prisoners of war, and the two
nations still have not signed a formal treaty ending their
war.
'Given that Iraq will most likely be the next theatre of
battle in the war on terrorism, Saddam Hussein has an interest
in a warmer relationship with Iran as the main threat to his
regime comes from Washington, not Teheran,' Mr Hashemi said.
The ethnic and religious groups that straddle the Iran-Iraq
border do not recognise the lines of demarcation, and cultural
and economic relations remain regardless of official animosity
or friendliness. 'It's natural that there's some sympathy
between the two,' said Elaheh Koolahi, a member of the Iranian
Parliament's foreign policy commission.
But regardless of any official or popular Iranian sympathy
for the Iraqis, no one within the Islamic republic's
Government - bitterly divided between outward-looking
reformist and anti-US conservative factions - has any love for
the Baghdad regime.
For the conservatives, Saddam - who invaded Iran, bombed
Teheran and slaughtered thousands of Shi'ite Muslims in the
months after the Gulf War - remains the butcher of Baghdad.
For the modern-minded reformists, he is the antithesis of
the pluralism they espouse. 'For Iran, it's better for
[Hussein] to go,' says Karim Arghandepour, an editor of the
reformist daily Nowrouz. 'We are obligated to defend the
forces of Iraqi democracy.'
Tensions between the US and Iran will surface in resolving
the fate of a post-Saddam Iraq. Despite antipathy toward him,
Iran remains keenly interested in Iraq. Large segments of the
local opposition are also sympathetic to Iran. And Iran could
make life difficult for US forces in Iraq by sending guerillas
across the border, says Professor Juan Cole, a history
professor at the University of Michigan.
Iran hosts thousands of displaced Iraqi Shi'ites who could
be easily sent back into southern Iraq as guerillas, Viet
Cong-style,' he said.
