Is Iraq out of control?

From: Subject: Is Iraq out of control? Date: Mon, 11 Apr 2005 10:31:41 +0430 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0006_01C53E81.A68ED910" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.2180 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0006_01C53E81.A68ED910 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/03257/221774.stm Is Iraq out of control?



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= Is Iraq out of = control?

Perceptions change=20 daily, but even the hopeful are worried about future=20

Sunday, September 14, 2003

By = Borzou=20 Daragahi, Special to the Post-Gazette

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Ahmad Mokhtar broke down in tears three times = as he=20 watched his office building, torched by looters, collapse in = flames.

The technology maestro at the Ministry of Trade had spent 35 = years=20 designing databases, a craft he imparts to university students as=20 passionately as a philosophy professor might discuss the secrets = of time=20 and existence. His files, books and computer programs were all = destroyed.

"I lost my whole life's work," Mokhtar says. "I try to keep = myself very=20 busy. I try to forget."

Since the end of the war, Mokhtar and most of his 30,000 fellow = officials at the ministry have gone back to work, using = warehouses, silos=20 and a floor of the U.S.-protected Ministry of Oil building as = offices.

RELATED STORY
Profiles:=20 Iraqis face a daily toil just getting by

Profiles: = Iraqis=20 face a daily toil just getting by He recently learned, to his = great=20 relief, that his biggest project -- a massive database containing = the=20 names, ages and addresses of every single Iraqi, which was = developed to=20 distribute food under the U.N. oil-for-food program -- had been = backed up=20 elsewhere.

It will prove most useful in helping Iraq's new Governing = Council get=20 off the ground and rebuild the country. And its discovery gives = Mokhtar=20 the sense that Iraq itself will rise from the rubble.

"It's all a matter of how you look at life," said the = U.S.-educated=20 engineer. "If you're an optimist you see the good things. If = you're a=20 pessimist, you only see the bad."

The continuing struggle in Iraq has emerged in part as a battle = of=20 perceptions -- both for Iraqis living in a new reality and for = Americans=20 trying to figure out whether their intervention has produced chaos = or=20 cause for hope.

Nowhere is this difference in perspective more evident than in = the U.S.=20 presidential election campaign. Democrats describe Iraq as a = basket case;=20 the Bush administration portrays the situation as troubled but = steadily=20 improving, not unlike conditions in Germany or Japan after World = War II.

On the ground in Iraq, there is no consensus on which of these=20 viewpoints is most accurate, and an optimist one day may be a = pessimist=20 the next. On the other hand, even the hopeful worry that chaos may = be=20 drawing near.

Fighting between U.S. soldiers and anti-American militants = remains a=20 part of daily life, and a series of deadly car bombings have = confounded=20 coalition forces and terrified Iraqis. The horrific explosions at = the=20 United Nations compound and at the Imam Ali mosque in Najaf, in=20 particular, have darkened the experience of living, working or = soldiering=20 in Iraq.

Bloody days like Friday, when U.S. forces mistakenly killed = eight Iraqi=20 policemen and two U.S. soldiers died in a separate incident, = contribute to=20 the sense that the security situation and the relationship between = Americans and Iraqis could spiral out of control.

At the same time, there is a continuing dribble of good news. = Aided by=20 a cadre of well-educated, highly skilled Iraqi technocrats, the=20 American-led reconstruction of Iraq is plodding forward through = the=20 wreckage of war and the dust of neglect.

In their near-daily news briefings at the Baghdad Convention = Center,=20 coalition officials detail their successes and criticize the = Baghdad news=20 corps for focusing on the negative. "We're light years ahead of=20 reconstruction compared to Kosovo," said Charles Heatly, the most = visible=20 spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority, the occupying = power.

Iraqis themselves agree to some extent but have many = complaints,=20 particularly about the pace of reconstruction. "They're doing = well, but=20 they are terribly slow," said Mohsen Shanshal, an Iraqi = businessman and=20 former adviser to the Iraq Central Bank. "What could be done in = one week=20 is done in one month."

Coalition officials concede delays but point out that = rebuilding=20 institutions ravaged by time, political repression and war takes = time.=20 When U.S.-led forces barged into Iraq, for instance, there was not = a=20 single cop on the beat. Finding competent police is a painstaking = process.=20 "It's not just a matter of hiring them; it's a matter of training = them, as=20 well," said Heatly, a Briton who speaks Arabic fluently.

Iraq's rebuilding needs are vast. Its utilities, public safety, = transportation, health care, education, military and energy = sectors all=20 need a thorough revamping.

But in the wake of the recent bombings, security is by far the = biggest=20 problem cited by Iraqis and the representatives of foreign = governments,=20 companies and aid agencies. Without improved security, they say, = there may=20 be no reconstruction.

Obsessed = with=20 security
"There will be no foreign = investment=20 here without security," said Professor Yahya al-Najar, an = economist at the=20 University of Baghdad. "The risks are too high for any company to = come=20 here."

Last week, a civilian employee was killed delivering mail for = the U.S.=20 Army as part of a contract with Kellogg Brown & Root, a = Halliburton=20 subsidiary. He was the second KBR employee killed in a month, = underscoring=20 the dangers for private firms.

Foreign investment in Iraq is still barely a trickle. Other = than the=20 mammoth and politically connected Halliburton and Bechtel Corp., = only=20 "brave and stupid" entrepreneurs have been willing to risk Iraq's=20 political instability and violence, said Richard Galustian, a = consultant=20 for one of the 20 private Western security firms operating here.

Even getting into Baghdad is a challenge. Roads are filled with = armed=20 bandits. Coalition officials have balked at resuming commercial = flights,=20 partly out of fear that one of the many shoulder-fired missiles = looted=20 from Iraqi military barracks after the war could take down an = airplane=20 full of foreign investors. At least four such rockets have been = fired at=20 approaching aircraft, said Col. Guy Shields, a coalition = spokesman.

Galustian said 8,000 of about 10,000 surface-to-air missiles = remain=20 unaccounted for. "I'd rather take my chances on the road," he = said.

Coalition forces emphasize their attempts to quickly construct = new=20 Iraqi police and security organs to replace the ones washed away = in the=20 toppling of Saddam Hussein's Baathist government.

The coalition has put 37,000 new police and 11,000 security = guards on=20 the streets and in front of buildings throughout Iraq. It has = placed=20 13,000 Iraqi border guards, customs officials and immigration = officers at=20 the nation's frontiers. It has recruited more than 1,000 soldiers = for=20 Iraq's new army. It is in the process of setting up an = eight-battalion=20 civil defense force that will help maintain order in the restless, = ethnically and religiously divided country.

Still, even U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, overall = commander of=20 military forces in Iraq, says he doesn't have enough troops to = protect=20 against potential outbreaks of violence. The challenges include = securing=20 Iraq's borders, fending off terrorist groups or armed militias, = and=20 stifling factional conflicts.

"I have sufficient forces to accomplish the missions that are = currently=20 assigned," he told reporters earlier this month. "But there are = some=20 security challenges that are looming in the future that would = require=20 additional forces." The United States is currently negotiating a = new role=20 for the United Nations in Iraq in hopes of getting more countries = to=20 contribute troops.

Security has become an obsession for all Iraqis and foreigners.

"During Saddam it was better because I could work 24 hours a = day," said=20 Dhia Farid, a CD vendor in a fancy Baghdad neighborhood. "But now = I have=20 to close at 10 p.m. because of the curfew and the crime. I'm = losing=20 business."

Splintered bits of=20 progress

Security problems have a ripple = effect=20 throughout the economy.

In Washington's vision for rebuilding post-war Iraq, oil = revenues from=20 Iraq's vast reserves were supposed to fuel Iraq's growth. But = sabotage and=20 looting have degraded Iraq's already fragile oil infrastructure.

Not only have alleged Saddam loyalists damaged pipelines, = causing=20 massive oil fires, but some Iraqis -- organized into criminal = gangs --=20 have tapped into pipelines and refineries to steal fuel, which = they=20 smuggle abroad to other Persian Gulf countries. As a result, = drivers in=20 the country with the second largest oil reserves in the world must = fume in=20 long lines for petrol due to chronic shortages.

The lack of oil revenue also threatens to cripple = reconstruction, even=20 if Congress provides the additional short-term funding President = George W.=20 Bush has requested.

"If we export oil and buy good equipment we can rebuild our = economy=20 very quickly," al-Najar said. "Without oil we cannot survive = because we=20 don't have flourishing agriculture or industry."

Coalition officials say they're close to restoring electricity = supplies=20 to pre-war levels. But blackouts remain a persistent problem = throughout=20 Iraq. Power is available off and on for only 12 hours a day in = Baghdad.

The energy problems feed off of each other: the electricity = shortage=20 contributes to the fuel shortage as more people buy petrol to = power huge=20 noisy electric generators.

Coalition officials blame Saddam for failing to invest in = Iraq's=20 infrastructure during the decades of his rule. Indeed, during the=20 Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, Saddam spent 100 percent of the = nation's=20 revenues on the military, plummeting the once-rich country into = debt. "We=20 inherited an appalling legacy under the previous government of = massive=20 under-investment," Heatly said.

Nevertheless, Iraqis are fed up. Riots erupted in Basra this = summer as=20 heat-addled residents demanded more electricity. The coalition = responded=20 by bringing in fuel to run generators and establishing an = oversight=20 committee to improve the situation.

Coalition officials often boast that Basra gets higher quality = water=20 than it did under Saddam. But that's assuming it gets to homes and = businesses. Pumps and water treatment facilities don't work when = the=20 electricity goes out.

The coalition is trying to get the private sector going on all = levels.=20 It has helped revamp a 1,300-stall marketplace in Baghdad, a = project=20 expected to employ 800 laborers. "You can see the amount of = economic=20 activity, the consumer activity just walking along the streets," = said=20 Heatly.

But efforts are splintered and messy. The coalition recently = organized=20 a conference at the Baghdad Convention Center to connect Iraqi=20 businesspeople with foreign investors. Tight security prevented = many from=20 entering. Those who managed to get through the complex series of=20 checkpoints found only other Iraqi businessmen.

Then there's the telephone system. U.S. forces bombed the = telephone=20 infrastructure during the war, and much of the country no longer = has=20 service. Both the coalition and Iraq's fledgling government have = promised=20 to get the phones up and running as soon as possible. U.S. = officials each=20 week trumpet the number of lines restored.

But Iraqi and American officials consistently pass the buck on = who will=20 ultimately fix the phones and make sure contracts are awarded = fairly.=20 Meanwhile, businessmen stew.

Zeyed Hassan Saleh al-Ithawi, a brash young real estate broker, = spends=20 his days running through the streets relaying messages. Instead of = hobnobbing on the phone with clients or schmoozing homeowners, = he's more=20 likely than not locking up his shop to tend to menial errands.

"This is no way to do business," he said. "I have to close up=20 completely and get into a cab just to go contact clients, ask = about prices=20 or just to say something to somebody."

Aside from the mammoth infrastructure projects, U.S. military=20 commanders also have been steadily pumping money into local = communities,=20 spending $69 million so far. In Najaf, for instance, the Marines = have=20 launched 1,400 projects totaling $5 million to do such things as = rebuild a=20 cement factory, rehabilitate an amusement park, refurbish schools = and=20 repave roads. The reconstruction of Iraq's irrigation canals is = employing=20 nearly 100,000 people.

All such projects, say coalition officials, however small or = unnoticed,=20 put cash in the hands of poor Iraqis and help local contractors = build=20 fledgling businesses.

Throughout Iraq, thousands of small improvements do seem to be = eking=20 the country forward everyday. Whether they will go far enough or = come fast=20 enough to stabilize the situation, or whether Iraq will unravel in = violence, remains to be seen.

(Borzou Daragahi is a journalist based in Baghdad. He can be = reached at=20 borzou@aol.com.)

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