The New York Times > Business > World Business > In = Mideast Aviation, Vying to Be New Global Hub

From: Subject: The New York Times > Business > World Business > In Mideast Aviation, Vying to Be New Global Hub Date: Tue, 13 Apr 2004 12:19:16 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_007B_01C42151.8A09C460"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1165 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_007B_01C42151.8A09C460 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/13/business/worldbusiness/13gulf.html?pagewanted=all&position= The New York Times > Business > World Business > In = Mideast Aviation, Vying to Be New Global Hub

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In Mideast Aviation, Vying to Be New Global=20 Hub

By BORZOU=20 DARAGAHI

Published: April 13,=20 2004

Associated=20 Press

Abdul = Aziz=20 al-Nuaimi, chairman of the Qatar Aviation=20 Authority, and James van Hoften, a Bechtel = executive, closed a deal in January on a = new=20 airport in Doha. At far left is Akbar = al-Baker,=20 chief of Qatar Airways.=20


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	Airlines= =20 and Airplanes

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3DT=20 EHRAN, Iran - In contrast to a = lingering slump=20 in the airline industry elsewhere around the globe, business = and=20 leisure travel in the Middle East and South Asia has surged, = heating=20 up regional competition and spurring multibillion-dollar = expansions=20 by Persian Gulf carriers and airports.

At stake is a transport locus to rival Singapore, with a = chance=20 to grab more of the business on lucrative international = routes from=20 large Western and Asian carriers.

"There's explosive growth in the region," said Jim Smith, = editor=20 of Jane's Transport Finance magazine.

The Middle East accounts now for only about 5 percent of = the=20 world air transport market, and most of its airlines - = including=20 Saudi Arabian Airlines - are clunky, poorly managed = operations=20 controlled by the state.

Even Emirates Airline, the region's most profitable and = ambitious=20 as well as one of the few managed according to Western = standards,=20 flew less than a sixth of the revenue passenger kilometers = of=20 American Airlines in 2002, ranking 24th in the world, = according to=20 Air Transport World, a trade magazine. Revenue passenger = kilometers=20 is a measure of sales volume.

And though the carriers have relatively low prices and = luxury=20 services - including some innovative amenities like onboard = nannies=20 and individual television screens in cabin class - experts = say they=20 will have a hard time changing Western travel habits. "A lot = of=20 people vote ethnically when they choose their airline," said = J. A.=20 Donoghue, editorial director of Air Transport World.

Nonetheless, industry analysts agree that the Middle East = has=20 been shaking off the effects of the war in Iraq and is now = the=20 world's hottest air transport market, fueled by growth in = the Indian=20 subcontinent and across the Mideast.

In the year that ended in November, passenger traffic in = the=20 region grew 5.4 percent, compared with a worldwide traffic = increase=20 of 2.1 percent. Plane takeoffs and landings grew 10.3 = percent,=20 compared with a worldwide decline of 0.6 percent, according = to=20 Airports Council International, a trade association based in = Geneva.=20 Planes are about as full as the global average of 77 = percent,=20 according to the International Air Transport = Association.

Emirates Airline, which is government controlled and = based in=20 Dubai, has been flying since 1985 and has been leading the = expansion=20 drive. In the last year, it has signed contracts to add 109 = planes=20 worth $26 billion to its current fleet of 51 planes. The = orders=20 include 45 A380-800's, the huge, long-haul planes that = Airbus of=20 France is set to introduce in 2006. The carrier plans to add = six=20 destinations this year, including nonstop flights to = Shanghai,=20 Glasgow and New York. The New York flight represents the = first=20 nonstop between the Mideast and North America.

Qatar Airways, which is also growing fast, has announced = a plan=20 to buy two A380-800's, part of a $5.1 billion, 34-plane = purchase=20 from Airbus to expand its fleet to 56 by 2008. It also plans = to=20 increase the number of destinations this year by more than a = quarter. The decade-old airline, owned by Qatar, its royal = family=20 and the Qatar Insurance Company, also plans to increase its = number=20 of destinations from the current 48 worldwide to 60, = including=20 Zurich and Istanbul, by year-end.

Qatar's government also signed a $2.5 billion deal with = the=20 Bechtel Group to build a new airport in Doha, the first part = of a=20 plan to increase the annual passenger capacity to 60 million = by 2020=20 from 4.6 million now.

The long-ailing Gulf Air, based in Bahrain and owned by = the=20 kingdoms of Bahrain and Oman and the United Arab Emirates, = says it=20 has cut its losses and plans to add three planes this year, = aiming=20 to nearly double its fleet to 60 by 2009. The 50-year-old = airline's=20 current fleet flies to more than 45 cities in 34 countries. =

Several new airlines have also popped up, including Air = Arabia, a=20 no-frills line based in the emirate of Sharjah, and the = upscale=20 Etihad Airlines of Abu Dhabi.

Even Iran, which is under heavy United States sanctions = and=20 unable to compete with the region's sleek carriers, has = begun=20 ramping up air capacity with its new $475 million Imam = Khomeini=20 International Airport just south of Tehran.

"Iran used to be the heart of the Silk Road," President = Mohammad=20 Khatami said at the ribbon-cutting in February, according to = state=20 media. "Now it can again connect east to west and north to=20 south."

Among some airline industry experts, there is an = undercurrent of=20 skepticism about the gulf's ability to absorb so much air = capacity.=20 "Everyone is always amazed at the ambition of Emirates' = expansion=20 plans," said Sandy Morris, an aerospace analyst based in = London for=20 ABN=20 Amro, the Dutch investment bank. "It's a sort of endless = debate=20 as to how it's able to do it and whether it makes sense." =

Michael Simon, the airline's spokesman, said, "Passenger = traffic=20 in the Middle East is growing at approximately 20 percent = every=20 year, which is a large enough cake for all to share."

But even some officials of the growing airlines marvel at = the=20 rate of expansion. James Hogan, the Australian whom Gulf Air = brought=20 in as chief executive two years ago, said there would be a = day of=20 reckoning for the industry.

"There's going to be some need for consolidation = somewhere down=20 the line," said Mr. Hogan, a veteran of Qantas and the = failed Ansett=20 Airlines in Australia.

For now, though, most industry experts tend to side with = the=20 optimists.

The number of passengers flying Emirates Airline has been = growing=20 about 30 percent a year, Mr. Morris of ABN Amro said. The = airline is=20 even nibbling into the Australia-England route, dominated by = major=20 carriers like Qantas and British=20 Airways, he said.

"No one can yet fly Sydney to London nonstop," Mr. = Donoghue of=20 Air Transport World said. "It doesn't make a difference if = you stop=20 off in Singapore, Hong Kong or Dubai."

Emirates Airline is betting that the future of the = industry will=20 be big planes stuffed with moderate-income passengers making = long=20 flights between East and West, hence its rush to order the = huge new=20 Airbus planes.

Those double-decker A380-800's will be able to carry a = maximum of=20 840 passengers over 10,000 miles without refueling, compared = with a=20 maximum of 525 passengers over 8,000 miles for Boeing's=20 747-400, now the biggest civil aviation plane.

About 18 million travelers passed through Dubai's airport = last=20 year. While it still trails Changi Airport in Singapore, = with its=20 24.7 million travelers, the passenger numbers are a sign of = Dubai's=20 emerging position as the Mideast's transport center.

Travelers spent a record $380 million in the Dubai = airport's=20 mall-like duty-free complex, up 24 percent from the previous = year.=20 In addition to offering passengers duty-free goods, the hubs = attract=20 corporations considering regional offices. "Dubai's future = equals=20 Emirates' future," Mr. Simon, the Emirates Airline = spokesman, said.=20 "We have a stake in its success. It has a stake in = ours."

The airline reported cash reserves of more than $1 = billion, which=20 Mr. Donoghue said was healthy for an airline the size of = Emirates.=20 Its March 31, 2003, annual report, the latest available, = reported a=20 74 percent increase in net profits.

According to Mr. Smith of Jane's Transport Finance, many = of the=20 gulf's airlines and airports are in good enough financial = shape to=20 persuade financers like Cr=E9dit Agricole Indosuez of = France, the HSBC=20 Holdings of London and Bank=20 of America to bankroll expansions.

"Look at the names of the banks that are financing those=20 aircraft," he said. "The people making these decisions are = not=20 stupid."



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