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IRAQ'S DECISIVE MOMENT
A nation torn apart = by=20 violence takes its first tentative steps toward democracy =
HIGH-RISK=20 BUSINESS: Pollsters have been called spies, beaten, kidnapped and = thrown=20 in jail

Borzou = Daragahi,=20 Chronicle Foreign Service

Saturday, January 29, 2005

Printable=20 Version=20
Email=20 This Article

Iraq=20 Elections

Voting=20 held in Iraq's first free election in a = half-century,=20 attacks on polling stations kill 44 = (01/30)=20

Mortar=20 fire, bombings amid heavy security = (01/30)=20

Bay=20 Area men drive all night to cast ballots = (01/30)=20

Polls=20 open under heavy security in Iraq = (01/29)=20

Rocket=20 hits U.S. Embassy in Baghdad (01/29)=20

Iraqis=20 try to stock up on food, gasoline = (01/29)=20

Iraqis=20 dance for joy in Nashville (01/29)=20

U.S.,=20 Iraqi militaries clamp down (01/29)=20

Scuffles=20 break out at Australia polling station = (01/29)=20

Insurgents=20 blast polling sites around Iraq (01/29)=20

Iraqis=20 cast their votes far from home (01/29)=20

Dangerous=20 work for pollsters (01/29)=20

Rebel=20 signals he may resist new government = (01/29)=20

Exiles=20 around the world vote (01/28)=20

Bush:=20 Sunday will help change world (01/28)=20

Bracing=20 for the big day (01/28)=20

Elections=20 begin yearlong political march (01/28)=20

Violence=20 across Sunni region (01/28)=20 =

The middle-aged man looks like the tweedy scholar he once was, = but now=20 he is engaged in one of the most dangerous occupations in Iraq.=20

He's a pollster.=20

"In Iraqi society, they're not used to seeing people knocking = on doors=20 asking people what they think about politics and the government," = said the=20 former professor of business administration in Baghdad. "That's = why many=20 of my employees have been jailed and beaten."=20

They also have been taken hostage by insurgent groups, accused = of=20 spying for the Americans and for their violent opponents and = banned by=20 militia groups in both the Kurdish north and Shiite south.=20

Once, during polling about Iraqi consumer habits and trends, = the head=20 of a household grabbed one of his pollsters at gunpoint and held = him until=20 the police arrived and cleared everything up. "The guy thought = that this=20 was a new way to know what they have in the house -- whether they = have=20 cars, whether they have a satellite dish -- so that thieves can = later come=20 to steal them."=20

So risky has the job become that the polling chief spoke to a = Chronicle=20 correspondent only on the condition that his name and the name of = his=20 institute not be published.=20

The former professor and several university colleagues set up = their=20 firm just after the fall of Saddam Hussein.=20

"We decided to dedicate our work, our scientific experience to = raise=20 the voice of Iraqis," said the pollster.=20

While he vehemently opposes the occupation, the professor soon = found=20 his company conducting polls for U.S. organizations such as the=20 Independent Republican Institute and the University of Michigan as = well as=20 for international news organizations, aid agencies and Iraqi = political=20 parties. Surveys cost up to $50,000 each.=20

He says the Independent Election Commission of Iraq, which is=20 overseeing Sunday's vote, would not allow him to conduct exit = polling,=20 arguing that any discrepancies between the pollster's numbers and = the=20 official tally could damage the legitimacy of the vote.=20

He declined to provide details of his most recent = election-related=20 polls, but he predicted that the Shiite-dominated United Iraqi = Alliance=20 will come out ahead, though not with an absolute majority. Prime = Minister=20 Ayad Allawi's Iraqi List, he said, has been picking up steam in = recent=20 weeks, and the Kurdish ticket also will score well.=20

None of the other parties will gain more than 3 percent of the = vote, he=20 predicted.=20

One of his polls showed that 66 percent of Iraqis said they = were likely=20 to vote, but he said the number was deceptively high. He compared = the=20 likelihood of Iraqis actually going to the polls, in the current=20 atmosphere of violence and intimidation, to the chance that a man = would=20 help out a victim being beaten up by a bully on the street.=20

"In your heart and in your mind, you might tell yourself you = will help=20 the weak man," he said. "But when it comes down to it, you = probably won't=20 because it will create problems for you."=20

Indeed, as Iraq sank into insurgent-fueled violence, his = organization=20 was targeted by both sides. Iraqi authorities thought his = employees were=20 gathering data for the insurgents. "They accused us of being = terrorists,"=20 he said.=20

Last month, two of his employees were beaten nearly to death in = the=20 city of Abu Ghraib, just west of Baghdad, by insurgent = sympathizers. Two=20 others, kidnapped by an insurgent group in another Sunni triangle = town,=20 were freed only after the professor agreed never to send his = pollsters=20 there again.=20

"The armed groups thought we were spying either for the = government or=20 the Americans," he said.=20

But the trickiest part of the job, he said, is framing the = questions.=20 "Secular," for example, is a no-go word in Iraq.=20

"If you ask an Iraqi if he supports a secular government, he = might hurt=20 you because this word is very dirty in the minds of Iraqis," he = said.=20 "Secular means no faith in God."=20

On the other hand, he said his pollsters have no problem asking = people=20 if they support the resistance. "People accept being named as part = of the=20 armed resistance or the mujahedeen," he said. "But if you ask them = whether=20 they support insurgents or terrorists, they might hurt = you."

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IRAQ'S DECISIVE MOMENT A nation torn apart = by=20 violence takes its first tentative steps toward democracy = HIGH-RISK=20 BUSINESS: Pollsters have been called spies, beaten, kidnapped and = thrown=20 in jail

IRAQ'S DECISIVE MOMENT
A nation torn apart = by=20 violence takes its first tentative steps toward democracy =
HIGH-RISK=20 BUSINESS: Pollsters have been called spies, beaten, kidnapped and = thrown=20 in jail