As tensions with US grow, Iran heightens war=20 readiness

By Borzou Daragahi, Globe Correspondent = | =20 February 20, 2005

TEHRAN -- Hamid-Reza, a 23-year-old clothing store manager, = lost=20 relatives in the Iran-Iraq war and says he would be ready to give = his life=20 for Iran against any aggressor if it would bring his country = victory. But=20 he fears his country would be no match for the United States, = which is=20 locked in an increasingly high-pitched diplomatic battle with = Tehran over=20 its nuclear program.

"What will I do?" he asked, speaking on condition his family = name not=20 be published. "Get inside an inner tube and go fight against the = American=20 battleships in the Persian Gulf?"

As tensions between Tehran and Washington have increased over = Iran's=20 pursuit of nuclear technology, Iran has begun publicly preparing = for a=20 possible US attack, announcing efforts to bolster and mobilize = recruits in=20 citizens' militias and making plans to engage in the type of=20 "asymmetrical" warfare that has plagued American troops in = neighboring=20 Iraq, officials and analysts say.

"Iran would respond within 15 minutes to any attack by the = United=20 States or any other country," an Iranian official close to the=20 conservative camp that runs the country's security and military = apparatus=20 said on condition of anonymity.

Tehran insists it needs nuclear power to meet its burgeoning = domestic=20 energy needs and bolster its scientific community. But Washington = accuses=20 Iran of using nuclear energy as a fig leaf for a weapons program. = France,=20 Britain, and Germany, also suspicious of Iran's nuclear ambitions, = have=20 insisted on strict inspections and have urged Iran to give up = components=20 of its nuclear program.

US officials say they support the European diplomatic efforts = but=20 refuse to rule out a military option if Iran refuses to give up = its=20 alleged pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. The Pentagon said = this=20 month that, as a matter of routine preparedness, it had upgraded = its=20 Iranian war plans.

Meanwhile, Iranian authorities also have signaled they have = been=20 getting ready for war. Newspapers have announced efforts to = increase the=20 number of the country's 7 million strong "Basiji" militia, which = were=20 deployed in human wave attacks against Saddam Hussein's army = during the=20 war with Iraq from 1980 to 1988. Iranian military authorities have = paraded=20 long-range, North Korean-designed Shahab missiles before = television=20 cameras.

One Western military specialist based in Tehran said on = condition of=20 anonymity that over the last year, Iran was sharpening its = abilities to=20 wage a guerrilla war.

It remains unclear how much of the recent military activity = amounts to=20 an actual mobilization and how much is a propaganda ploy. Iranian=20 officials and analysts have said that they want to highlight the = potential=20 costs of an attack on Iran to frighten the American public and = raise the=20 stakes for US officials.

"Right now it's a psychological war," said Nasser Hadian, = professor of=20 political science at the University of Tehran, who recently = returned from=20 a three-year stint as a scholar at Columbia University. "Pressure = from=20 other countries and inside America is important, but it won't = prevent an=20 attack. The only thing that will prevent an attack is that if = America=20 knows it will pay a heavy price."

Iran is also attempting to give the impression that it is = bolstering=20 its conventional forces. Last December, Iran announced what it = called its=20 largest war games ever, deploying 120,000 troops as well as tanks, = helicopters, and armored vehicles along its western border. More = recently,=20 Iran's press reported that the Iranian Air Force had received = orders to=20 engage any plane that violates Iranian airspace, after reports = emerged of=20 US spy planes monitoring Iran's skies.

Iran's army includes 350,000 active-duty soldiers and 220,000=20 conscripts. The elite Revolutionary Guards number 120,000, many of = them=20 draftees. The Navy and Air Force total 70,000 men.

The armed forces have about 2,000 tanks, 300 combat aircraft, = three=20 submarines, hundreds of helicopters, and at least a dozen = Russian-made=20 Scud missile launchers of the type Hussein used against Israel = during the=20 1991 Gulf War. Iran also has an undetermined number of Shahab = missiles=20 based on North Korean designs that have ranges of about 1,500 = miles.

But outside military specialists and Iranians concede that the=20 country's conventional hardware is antiquated, worn down by years = of US=20 and European sanctions.

"Most of Iran's military equipment is aging or second-rate, and = much of=20 it is worn," military analyst Anthony Cordesman wrote in a = December=20 assessment of Iran's military. "Iran lost some 50 to 60 percent of = its=20 land order of battle in the climactic battles of the Iran-Iraq = war, and it=20 has never had large-scale access to the modern weapons and = military=20 technology necessary to replace them."

Still, Iran could create myriad troubles.

Iran's security forces also include a number of intelligence = agencies=20 with extensive overseas experience and assets, specialists say. = Iran's=20 highly classified Quds forces, which answer directly to Iranian = leader=20 Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, are believed to have operations in = Lebanon,=20 the Palestinian territories, Jordan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, = Turkey,=20 the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, and North Africa, as well as = Europe and=20 North America, according to a December report by the Center for = Strategic=20 and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

Within minutes of any attack, Iran's air and sea forces could = threaten=20 oil shipments in the Persian Gulf as well as Gulf of Oman. Iran = controls=20 the northern coast of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway = through=20 which oil tankers must navigate to get out of the Gulf, and could = sink=20 ships, mine sea routes, or bomb oil platforms, according to the = center's=20 report.

Iran could activate Hezbollah militia in Lebanon to launch = attacks on=20 Israel. It could have operatives attack US interests in = Azerbaijan,=20 Central Asia, or Turkey.

But most analysts agree that the biggest trump card Iranians = could play=20 is to unleash havoc in neighboring Iraq, where Iraqis who spent = years in=20 Iran as exiles are about to assume a dominant role in the = government.

Though the United States alleges Tehran already has been = interfering in=20 Iraq, many analysts brush off the current infiltration as minor = compared=20 to the damage Iran could cause by allowing Iraqi militia to bring = heavy=20 weapons into Iran, by backing the most extreme Islamist groups = instead of=20 the moderates it now supports, or by dispatching operatives across = the=20 long, porous border.

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